India, a world power?
[Published in Lettre du CIDIF, November 2007, n 37]
Alain Lamballe [1]
[General within the reserve force of the French Army, doctor of political sociology, a member of the Asia-21 Group (Futuribles), Paris.]
With approximately one billion two hundred million people, India can no longer be ignored by the world. She does not ignore it and turns her gaze towards the vast expanse. Sure, her aura and her power today seem weak when compared to her neighbor, China. But she too is awakening, her potential is being affirmed and her role in world affairs is growing, as much in the political as economic and even military arenas.
This study proposes to analyze India’s rise to power in these different areas and see how it squares up compared to American superpower and to the major powers today and in relation to tomorrow’s superpower, China. The world is changing and India will contribute to this change.
I- A history and geography in the service of a great destiny
in spite of internal problems
We cannot understand India today without referring to her prestigious past that pervades the country’s elite. She will be a great nation because she has already been so. It is written in his destiny. This is the way her leaders think since independence, whatever be their political hue. This is reflected in most contemporary political thinkers who conduct research in many think tanks of the country. Enthusiasm carries them away. All observers have noted this fact.
Through its wealth, India has always attracted the greed of foreigners. Alexander the Great tried his hand at conquest but could only reach the Indus before turning back. Later the Arabs encroached but without conquering. Some Afghan leaders, converts to Islam, undertook its conquest, succeeded in part and momentarily. It was the Moguls, they too Muslims, from Central Asia who settled permanently in India. They controlled her, almost entirely, until the arrival of English. India has enriched itself with outside cultures that she more or less absorbed, although she was herself home to a great civilization.
This diversity that characterizes her is at the root of the secularism of most of the Indian political regimes that accept all beliefs and all forms of thought. This Indian-style secularism does not lead to the quest for an a-religious society, it does not mean the marginalization of religion because religious sensibility is just beneath the skin of almost all Indians, regardless of their confession. She advocates on the contrary the desired and accepted coexistence of all religions. The diversity of India melts in the exchange of ideas and opinions, supported now by automatic translations between the main languages of India (Hindi, Urdu, Bengali, Tamil, etc.).
Personalities from all backgrounds and faiths coexist at the summit of the State and its administration. Thus, the function of President of the Republic has been repeatedly held by a Muslim (that is the case today). Currently, the Prime Minister is Sikh and the Defense Minister Christian. The President of the majority Congress Party is also a Christian and moreover of Italian origin. Senior civil servants belong to all communities, including tribal.
Some generals are Sikhs, Muslims or Christians. A former Chief of Staff of the Air Force, a Muslim, subsequently became ambassador to France. The Army Chief of Staff Army is currently a Sikh. The chief of staff [?] of the Army is a Christian General of the Army Corps. Incidentally, it was military attaché in Paris and has exercised an operational command in West Bengal, the Army Corps of Bagdogra, in charge of the corridor commonly called “chicken neck” connecting the North-East to the rest of the India, between China and Bangladesh. Examples could be multiplied. Muslims, however, represent a lower percentage in the army than in the population.
In the civilian and military administrations, most key positions are held by Hindus, which is normal because they form the majority of the population, but merit is, in general, the main criterion for selection. The Sachar Committee has, however, established in a report released in 2006 that the Muslim community has been generally disadvantaged. Among the businessmen who have been most successful, are Muslims, although they generally seem to left behind in the private sector.
Since she gained independence in 1947, India has continued to assert herself on the international scene. Gradually, from the state-as-object [that is passive while acted upon by other states – SV], she has become a state-as-subject [acting upon other states on her own initiative – SV]. In fact, she was already so in history through her science (the so-called Arab numerals, including zero, are actually of Indian origin, their invention in the sixth century of our era is generally attributed to a Kashmiri mathematician), medicine and literature. She was so thanks to her theorists, poorly understood, of political thought (the work of Chanakya, who lived towards the third century before Christ, evokes the subsequent work Machiavelli ;it is supplemented by the writings of Tiruvalluvar, a Tamil who lived no doubt in the sixth century AD, therefore, he too before the author of The Prince). She was so by her expansion, peaceful, into Southeast Asia (notably in Indonesia and Cambodia), where her influence encountered that of China (hence the expressive term of Indochina to describe our colony). Her current interest in Southeast Asia thus has historical precedents. She is conscious of this and the major powers have begun to take into account her growing importance.
The internal problems, however, delay the rise of this vast country that brings together approximately 1,200,000,000 people and is rich not only on account of the quality of its men and women but also because of her natural resources. She is plagued by various insurgencies. In addition to Kashmir, autonomy and separatist movements are waging a veritable guerrilla by resorting to terrorist acts in Assam (now known as Asom, which is in fact the ancient name) and in other states of the Northeast. Moreover, the Maoist rebellion is growing in the center and east of the country, in liaison with that of Nepal. India is facing all these simultaneous insurgencies with uneven success and it is costing her dearly in human and financial resources. The fight against extremist organizations mobilizes many paramilitary and even military forces [2].
The 850 million Hindus and 160 million Muslims in India live mostly on good terms but underlying “communal” tensions (a term commonly used) remain. Real riots erupt from time to time, sometimes under the most frivolous pretexts. The cultural and religious divide between the two communities exists and will not disappear. It will even be accentuated by simple arithmetic, population growth is much higher among Muslims than among Hindus. In addition, there is conversion to Islam but not to Hinduism. One is born a Hindu, one does not become one or only rarely. However, low-caste Hindus and untouchables convert to Buddhism and also to Islam. Islam claims to be equal but it is hardly so because there are, transposed, the unequal signs of Hindu society.
Overall Indian federalism can take into account ethnic, religious, and linguistic minorities and mitigate inter-provincial rivalries with varying degrees of felicity. The adverse effects of the caste system fades with their politicization. The interests of lower castes and untouchables are taken into account by political formations which sometimes accede to power in provinces as at the centre, often within coalitions. But democracy functions in an imperfect manner. Justice does not fulfil its role, powerful criminals escape the sentences they deserve. Some enter politics and even occupy ministerial posts. Absenteeism among teachers is common. In general, the administration shows proof of inefficiency and suffers from corruption. More than a third of the electricity is stolen.
II- An economy that is imposing itself despite serious deficiencies
The Indian economy began a policy of privatization from 1990, well after China. The Gross Domestic Product, currently more than 1000 billion dollars, is growing at a pace certainly lower than in China, but the percentage increase remains high, at around 9%, which is however considered inadequate taking into account the population growth. Growth is traditionally strong in services but now also in the manufacturing sector. India is becoming not only the laboratory of the world, as has been said, but also a workshop of the world, just like China albeit at a slower pace. Its foreign exchange reserves amount to more than 200 billion dollars.
India is now the fourth largest economy in the world after the USA, Germany and Japan. Towards 2020, it could rise to third place ahead of Japan but far behind the USA and China. Its growth is due to private sector development, which is dominated very competitive and well managed companies, and a modern and effective banking sector. The number of protected industries has decreased. However, privatization is marking time because of opposition from the communists. For the same reason, the labour laws, which are currently too restrictive, can not be changed. The government must take into account the attitude of the communists because it needs their support in parliament to retain the majority.
Half the population is under 25 years. This youth is an asset which will last for several decades, without India having to worry about problems of older people. It is therefore advantaged in this domain as compared to China, which is aging fast. Its scientific potential is becoming evident. For the second time the presidency of the International Council of Science is assumed by an Indian. 400,000 engineers graduate each year from the universities and other institutions of higher education, ie, as much as in the USA and more than in the whole of Europe. However, employers sometimes complain of their inadequate level. Such is the view expressed by the National Association of Software and Service Companies (NASSCOM). The systems of primary and secondary education are experiencing serious failures offset by an expansion of private schools, inaccessible to the poor but frequented by students from the middle classes. Shortcomings also exist in the domain of health. Some private hospitals and clinics, often of a high standard, make up for the public institutions but again the disadvantaged segments of the population have no access.
India has well known poles of excellence, such as biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, software production, the space industry (an observation satellite with the resolution of one meter is underway)… Some serious setback, however, punctuate its space and missile program , as evidenced by the failed attempt to launch a satellite on July 10, 2006. But in this domain too India has found success with the successful launch of four satellites by a single rocket on January 10, 2007, the recovery of a spacecraft on January 22, 2007, and a successful firing of a missile with a range of 3,500 kilometers on April 12, 2007. The India highlights its strengths, especially in special economic zones designed to attract foreign investment, create jobs, and boost exports through financial incentives and facilities of international standard. The first, a veritable ultramodern oasis, is located near Chennai (new name for Madras). But this policy is facing some setbacks. The requisition of farmland, sometimes rich, in order to create special economic zones arouses strong protests. Similarly, criticism is spreading with regard to tax benefits that cause colossal losses to the state.
India excels in the construction of dams (about 4,000 were built on major rivers and their tributaries since independence),… A grandiose project to link all major rivers is under consideration. If realized, it would better distribute water resources, i.e., transfer from the generally well-endowed north to the arid south. In addition to financial implications, the project meets with opposition from environmentalists. Moreover, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, caused by global warming, could call it into question. In the current state of things, the networks for water distribution in the cities are deficient, causing heavy losses. Likewise, the rural areas use up water for irrigation in a too irrational manner, resulting in a huge waste. To ensure the needs of its growing urban population, to enable a new agricultural revolution, and to meet industrial needs, India will have to manage water better. Otherwise, its development will be jeopardized.
Economic development requires an ever growing energy consumption. At the moment, electricity production, mainly thermal, is insufficient. The power outages in the distribution of electric current penalizes industries. Nuclear energy will be an indispensable complement. Hydroelectric power will also be developed. India imports 70% of its oil and its dependence on hydrocarbons will grow. Her needs should be taken into account in the global distribution of oil and gas. The construction of gas pipelines from Iran through Pakistan and from Central Asia through Afghanistan and Pakistan seems to be the best solution, despite the instability of the regions crossed. The refining capacity for oil is still limited. The 18 Indian refineries are of modest size. But the one being built in Gujarat in the Gulf of Kutch, at Jamnagar will be the biggest in the world. Scheduled to be completed by the end of 2008, it will export almost half of its production to the USA.
Agriculture is lagging somewhat and remains subject to the vagaries of the monsoon, which is often very capricious. Agricultural production has stagnated, peasants suffer from over-indebtedness. The number of suicides among those in the south in particular, reflects the deep unease of the countryside. Food self-sufficiency cannot be guaranteed because of the scarcity of farmland, water shortages, and growing population. In 2006, India imported wheat as she had already done in 2000. The Indian demand could well become a permanent given, with the USA and Australia supplying the wheat. The widespread pollution of rivers also poses serious health problems. The 11th Five-Year Plan (1 April 2007-31 March 2012) will give priority to agricultural development.
The road, rail, air, and port infrastructures remain very inadequate. A program of large capacity highway construction exists to link the four metropolitan cities of Delhi, Kolkata (new name for Calcutta), Chennai, and Mumbai (new name of Bombay), but its implementation is progressing slowly. The Nava Sheva port near Mumbai, is almost comparable to U.S. ports for handling containers, but remains the exception. Labour legislation, which is very rigid, makes layoffs difficult and deters investors.
The system of taxation is being modernized although the basis is still weak. A value-added tax, a modern tax par excellence, is being gradually imposed in the States. It should widespread throughout the country in the years following.
Overall, the rise to power generates inequalities between urban and rural areas and between provinces, those of the west and south are often better off. The place of India in international trade remains low but growing. Since late 2006, an Indian firm, Infosys Technologies, is now listed on the U.S. Nasdaq market.
III- An ever growing influence in the world
The difficult relations with Pakistan
Pakistan is for India a permanent embarrassment that prevents it from fully realizing its regional and, to a lesser extent, global projects. Unable to threaten the latter, Pakistan maintains its power of nuisance in Kashmir by supporting separatist movements and even within the rest of India, affirm many commentators, particularly in the north-east through Bangladesh where Islamist extremism is progressing. In fact, India accuses Pakistan of allowing Islamic extremist movements to plot attacks all over its territory or of organizing them itself through its main intelligence service, the Directorate of Inter-Services Intelligence (DISI), better known by the simple acronym of ISI. For its part, Pakistan states in international forums that India is violating human rights, particularly in Kashmir. It also denounces the aid it would bring to rebel movements, particularly in Baluchistan. Both countries continue to accuse each other.
The relief coordination to assist victims of the earthquake of October 8, 2005 in the part of Kashmir administered by Pakistan showed the limits of a rapprochement. Sure, the cease-fire, declared on November 25, 2003, is maintained on the Line of Control that India regards as sacrosanct. But there is no visible progress in resolving the conflict in Kashmir, where attacks still occur regularly in the Indian part. No progress has been made with regard to the specific issue of the Siachen glacier.
The movement of people between Srinagar, summer capital of Indian Kashmir, and Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani Kashmir, was opened in early 2005. Interrupted by the earthquake, it has been restored but it is insignificant. Other crossing points for example between Rawalakot and Ponch were opened along the Line of Control to facilitate the passage of aid after the earthquake but there is no evidence that they will remain so. The transport of goods between the two Kashmirs remains in draft form.
Apart from Kashmir, a railway was opened between Mirpurkhas in Sindh and Munabao in Rajasthan. It is in addition to bus lines connecting Lahore to Delhi, through the border post of Wagah / Attari, and Lahore to Amritsar. On a long border of about 2,400 km, there are only these two crossing points by road and rail. These facilities are of relative importance because of severe administrative constraints (including lack of consulates apart from the embassies and deadlines for issuing visas), necessary before embarking on travel between the two countries.
In addition, no solution at hand to resolve the dispute off the Rann of Kuch, the possible presence of hydrocarbons under the seabed making it difficult to define the maritime boundary.
Confidence-building measures remain. In addition to regular telephone links between the staffs of the two armies and meetings between local commanders of the paramilitary forces which have existed for a long time, maritime security and coastguard agencies exchange information. The two countries respect their commitments made in 1988 and ratified in 1991, to report annually on the list of their nuclear facilities, which they undertake not to attack. Now, they give notice before any test of ballistic missiles (the agreement excludes cruise missiles). A mechanism for joint struggle against terrorism has been defined. There is no evidence that it will operate satisfactorily.
Trade between India and Pakistan remains limited. Commercial exchanges are usually made by sea and through third countries. There are no direct shipping routes between the two countries, for example, between Mumbai and Karachi but they are now now expected to be restored. New Delhi has accorded since 1995 the most-favoured-nation clause but Islamabad refuses to reciprocate, fearing competition.
A regional dominance
Despite the resistance and obstruction of Pakistan, India had first of all asserted herself as a regional power in South Asia. Through her size, population, and the size of her economy, she dominates her regional partners which undergo willy-nilly her hegemony. In addition to Pakistan, Bangladesh contests this dominance to a lesser extent.
India favors bilateral negotiations with her neighbors rather than resort to a multinational diplomacy within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) which groups seven countries in the region (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka and Maldives). This is the only country to have a border with all other countries of the association. Her Gross Domestic Product represents 80% of that of all the countries that are members of the association and her trade balance is positive with each of them, creating deep resentment. She finds no interest in strengthening the role of the association within which the six other members tend to put up a united front in the face of New Delhi. Major problems such as energy and management of rivers, which often cross several national territories, remain unable to find regional solutions but only, and not always, bilateral arrangements [3]. The accession of Afghanistan, decided at the meeting of the association in November 2005, brings the number of member countries to eight. It can be only favorable to India, to the detriment of Pakistan. New Delhi has in effect very cordial relations with Kabul in providing assistance in various domains, particularly the police. However, it abstains from intervening to rebuild the Afghan army so as not to arouse the discontent of Islamabad.
Despite her propensity towards bilateral diplomacy, India did not oppose the establishment of a free trade agreement within the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation, perhaps because she sees a way for easier access to countries beyond the western limits of South Asia, which now politically includes Afghanistan. The agreement, known as the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) has been in force since 1 July 2006, but in reality does not work, in part because Pakistan refuses to apply it to India fearing a flood of Indian products, even if, simultaneously, it allows itself to be invaded by Chinese articles. The Indian products are admitted only sparingly, often because of the need to lower local prices.
Opening to the Middle East and Central Asia
To the west, India is preparing to conclude a free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), bringing together Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE. In addition, the Council could contribute financially to the realization of the comprehensive program of Indian infrastructure. For its part, India could build higher education institutions in the GCC countries. She is particularly interested in the United Arab Emirates with which she plans to create joint ventures in third, especially Arab, countries. Indian technology would be allied to Arab finance .
India is also developing her relations with Iran which responds favorably to break its isolation. New Delhi’s opposition to Iran’s nuclear program does not appear at the moment to be a serious obstacle to the implementation of agreements that have been already concluded but could become so for those that remain under discussion. An agreement was signed in 2003 on the provision by Iran of oil and gas. Another agreement was concluded in 2005 for the delivery of liquefied gas. India participates in the modernization of the port of Bander Abbas and the development of the port of Chabahar, strategically situated at the entrance to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. She also contributes to the construction roads and railways, starting from the latter port, with the intention of gaining access to Central Asia, away from Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan in effect denied transit to these ex-Soviet regions as well as to Iran and Afghanistan, for political reasons but also for fear of being invaded, in a roundabout and clandestine manner, by Indian products sold at dirt cheap prices. Afghan products may transit through Pakistan to India but Indian products destined for Afghanistan cannot pass through Pakistan. The recourse to maritime transport is necessary for India. Moreover, Pakistan and Afghanistan will remain unstable for a long time, which makes all land transport risky. Iran is therefore of major interest to India especially as it allows her to constitute a sort of alliance in reverse to contain Pakistan.
Opening to Southeast Asia and the Far East
India has also implemented a policy of opening towards the east. She has developed her relations with Southeast Asia to which she is geographically close by way of her Andaman and Nicobar archipelagos. Regular meetings between India and the Association of South-East Asia Nations (ASEAN) are now held regularly (the fifth took place in January 2007). Nevertheless, India’s evident reluctance to open her market delays the concluding of a trade agreement.
India participates, like Bangladesh and Pakistan, in the work of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), which focuses on security issues in the broadest sense. The seminars are held on maritime safety, one of them took place in October 2005 in Cochin, Kerala. With four other countries in South Asia (Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka), she is also a member of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), an association which also includes Burma [4] and Thailand but from which Pakistan is excluded. Bilateral relations with all countries of Southeast Asia are experiencing rapid growth despite the rigid Indian legislation. With Indonesia, a strategic dialogue has been established and operates on the basis of annual meetings. Relations wil intensify to include cooperation in space with the installation an Indian satellite-tracking station in the Indonesian province of Irian Jaya.
With support from Japan, India participates in meetings of the East Asia Association (the first was held in December 2005 and the second in January 2007). She is now the largest recipient of Japanese development aid. But, considering the potential, bilateral trade remains relatively low, $6 billion for fiscal year 2005 – 2006 (in India, fiscal years extend from April 1 to March 31).
Opening to the rest of the world
The Muslim community of India which represents approximately 160,000,000 people, or more than the population of Bangladesh and nearly the same as that of Pakistan, offers some benefits by way of diversifying her international relations, but it can also reduce her freedom of maneuver. It is both an asset and an obstacle.
India has established a cooperation program, which is still modest, but she has already acquired a good reputation in the reconstruction of some countries undergoing crisis, including Afghanistan. She also develops her relations with African countries, including South Africa, and South American countries, including Brazil and Chile, with which a free trade agreement has been negotiated.
Russia has called on India and Iran to join as observers the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which brings together Russia, China and four Central Asian countries, deriving from the Soviet Union (Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan). The China has not opposed but has demanded equal status for Pakistan. New Delhi will strengthen its presence in Central Asia. The organization focuses its attention on security problems, including terrorism, but is increasingly concerned with economic issues, including energy supplies.
Indian influence is therefore being felt far beyond South Asia. India is helping to revitalize the movement of non-aligned countries, although it is no longer of much use. Even if she is not a permanent member of the Security Council of the United Nations, her opinions as a major economic and military power, with nuclear weapons cannot be ignored. Like China, she does not belong to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) or the International Energy Agency. However, like China, she is associated with the resolution of the major problems facing humanity, such as the energy crisis and global warming. Her role within the G 20, alongside China and Brazil, is to defend the interests of developing countries. She is among the countries who denounce with the greatest vigour subsidies granted by developed countries on agricultural products and seek easier access to European and American markets. Her influence within the World Trade Organisation (WTO) is growing, thanks to close cooperation with not only China and Brazil but also South Africa.
A strong presence in the cultural domain reinforces India’s prominent place in the World. We are witnessing a real renaissance of her cultural influence. Her cinema, music, arts, dances are enjoyong unalloyed success on all continents. Indian fashion provokes a certain enthusiasm. It might even be added that India is a great gastronomic power, her cuisine is known throughout the world. An Indian economist, Amartya Sen, has received the 1998 Nobel Prize in economics for his works on the origin of famine. Indian literature is well recognized. For the second time in two decades, India was in 2006 the guest of honor at the book fair in Frankfurt am Main, the oldest and largest in the world. She was also in the spotlight in spring 2007 at the book fair in Paris. It is a young novelist with an Indian father and a half-German mother who has received the 2006 Man Booker prize, the highest literary award in the UK for her book The inheritance of loss. She thus becomes the third Indian to win after Salman Rushdie, author of very controversial Satanic Verses and Arundhati Roy, the well-known defender of the oppressed.
IV-A possible accord between India and China
Serious disputes have always opposed India and China, including border demarcation, the dispute involving some 130,000 km2 in the Himalayas. The construction, planned but not yet decided, of a huge dam on the Brahmaputra before it penetrates Asom would provoke tension between the two countries but also between China and Bangladesh. It is possible that China may abandon the project. In addition, Beijing opposes the entry of India to the Security Council of the United Nations as a permanent member.
The two countries are engaged in some competition in Asia. India discerns unfriendly designs in Chinese initiatives in Pakistan and Burma. These are manifest in the construction of roads, participation in the construction in Pakistan of the deep water port of Gwadar (which could serve as a base for warships, in addition to the naval base at Ormara, also on the Makran coast), use of the ports of Mergui, Dawei, Thandwe and Sittwé, in Burma and installing a listening station with a Hanggyi in a Burmese island, off the Arakan. In addition, China is participating in the modernization of the port of Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka. Its futile attempt, encouraged by Pakistan but denied by Beijing, to create a submarine base on the island of Marao in the Maldives, has reinforced fears in India.
To counter the growing Chinese influence in Burma, India now considers it necessary to develop its relations with this country, while regretting its military regime. It envisages, in particular, the importation of gas but Bangladesh lays down three conditions for the construction of a pipeline crossing its territory: the possibility of importing hydroelectric power from Bhutan and Nepal, the right of transit to Nepal and Bhutan, and the rebalancing trade. India seems very reluctant as regards the first two points because she does not want not too close contacts between Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan. New Delhi would also like get Dhaka to agree to the transit by road and rail, and not just by river as is currently the case, of men and goods between West Bengal and the States of North-East, which are almost landlocked. But the Bangladeshis reject this request. An authorization for access to the Asom and other North-East States from the port of Chittagong would be regarded as a positive gesture by New Delhi. The Indians wrap these diverse requests within the expression of a wider policy, to which Bangladesh would contribute, namely the opening to Southeast Asia. The Bangladesh would be a link between India and Burma. In the event of a political impossibility to build across Bangladesh a pipeline linking the Burmese fields to consumers in India, New Delhi is considering a new route that would join the state of Mizoram through the Kaladan River Valley then Asom and West Bengal. In addition, in order not to leave the field open to China, India grants military aid to Burma. In doing so, she hopes to get more cooperation from that country to conduct joint operations against insurgents in north-east India.
China, through its province of Xinjiang, has also begun to express its interest in Afghanistan, where India has regained its influence since the fall of the Taliban regime.
The Chinese support formerly given to the King of Nepal in his fight against Maoist insurgents, which included the supply of arms, grieved India, which had suspended its own military aid that had been exclusive to express her displeasure about the suppression of democracy. The Chinese attempts to arrive at an agreement with Bhutan on defining the borders are of concern because she fears that Thimphu might make too important concessions, particularly in the Chumbi Valley, of strategic importance for the Indians because it commands the access corridor linking West Bengal to Asom. China is seeking to s’incruster increasingly in the Himalayas from Tibet.
Despite these differences, the points of convergence have become clearer. The attitude of neutrality now adopted by Beijing with respect to Kashmir, and to the great displeasure of Islamabad, and the quasi-official recognition of membership of Sikkim to India, promotes rapprochement with New Delhi. India and China cooperate in many areas and find more common ground. They refuse a unipolar world dominated by the USA and advocate a multipolar world. They would constitute poles as much as the USA, Japan, Russia, the European Union, Brazil and South Africa. India and China have established a strategic partnership on April 11, 2005, the content of which remains vague. Like Russia, they try to oppose American policy towards Iran. A triad is forming, materialized through regular meetings of foreign ministers of the three countries. Moscow and Beijing want to avoid India falling into the American orbit. They are courting her.
Like Pakistan, India envisages, in the present state of affairs, to ignoring US opposition to building a gas pipeline from Iran, through Pakistani territory. China could benefit if this pipeline were extended to Yunnan Province via India. The major repeated terrorist attacks in India, like those in New Delhi on October 29, 2005 and Mumbai on July 11, 2006, could suffice for the idea to be abandoned in the wake of the cooling of relations that would not fail to follow between Pakistan and India. A pipeline through Pakistan to reach Xinjiang seems a safer alternative for China despite the technical difficulties caused by crossing the Karakoram. Such a route would also be more attractive for Pakistan since India would be eliminated to the benefit of China. In either case, Iran would be assured of having customers of respectable size, India or China. A combination of the two options is also not to be excluded.
India and China are sometimes in competition in world markets with a significant advantage for the second (eg China’s trade with Latin America is ten times higher than that of India). But they are major potential markets for each other, although production may be similar. They are ready to develop their trade mostly by sea but also by land. To this end, they improve the road network on both sides of the Himalayas, navigable at least at certain times of the year through the many passes and valleys. The Nathu pass (Nathu La, La meaning pass in Tibetan), reopened in 2006, is the third crossing point after those of Shipki La in Himachal Pradesh and Lipulekh in Uttaranchal. China and India could also rehabilitate the historic route, to which the U.S. General Stilwell gave his name, which was built to help China cope with the Japanese during the Second World War, from the Asom through Burma. India remains aware of the risk of being swamped by Chinese products as are already her neighbours. She takes protective measures while respecting international rules to the extent possible. Trade in 2006 has reached about 20 billion dollars, which constitutes a considerable progress and could reach 40 billion dollars in 2010.
China is clearly ahead of India in the field of scientific research, even if it has fallen behind in some areas like software. For example, the number of Chinese scientific publications, in full progression, reached 55,000 annually, compared to the figure of 19,000 for India. Both countries now represent a significant share of global contributions to research. They develop their complementarity in creating joint ventures on electronics, automotive industry, and the textile industry. Some Indian companies are moving to China and Chinese enterprises to India. Hence the importance that China now attaches to India, although the latter sometimes shows reluctance for security reasons and for fear of excessive competition.
Although competitors in the search for energy sources, especially in Central Asia, they have agreed to jointly prospect oil and gas in Iran and Sudan, to the detriment of Western countries. Similar cooperation in Africa, Asia, and Latin America is under consideration.
Relations were also made in the military field with reciprocal visits and even some joint naval maneuvers.
At international forums, the two countries adopt common positions which often assume a distinct anti-Western connotation. The development of Sino-Indian relations could be undermined by an emerging Indo-American rapprochement. In wanting to simultaneously improve its relations with both countries, New Delhi is engaged in a difficult exercise.
V- Mutual interests between India and Western countries but also rivalries
The USA takes the development of Sino-Indian relations seriously. An agreement between India and China would have an adverse impact on the US and on the entire Western world. Washington seeks not only to counter any rapprochement between New Delhi and Beijing but to convince New Delhi to adopt a common strategy towards China.
India appears to the USA as a potential heavyweight ally, in the long term, to offset the rising power of China. Some shared democratic values unite them, as well as the fight against Islamic terrorism. Pakistan, with its semi-dictatorial military regime, is a friend country only provisionally, useful in the short term, to act in Afghanistan and to fight against terrorism. At the whim of Washington, it can also serve as a counterweight to India if the latter showed itself to be too recalcitrant. The U.S. authorities are allowing themselves the option of using the weaker country to make the stronger submit and where appropriate bring it to contrition.
India is a key element in the American policy of encircling, or at least neutralizing China on its southern flank, a policy which is however experiencing serious setbacks in ex-Soviet Central Asia and even Afghanistan. Without being a real ally, India can still serve long-term American interests. Her expertise in peacekeeping operations, humanitarian assistance, and reconstruction of countries devastated by disasters or conflicts as well as its ability to monitor maritime areas are of interest to Washington. Indian warships already accompany vessels of the American merchant marine to the Strait of Malacca, infected by pirates. Such tasks performed by India, relieve America and allow it to complete more important missions that demand greater resources, in Asia and elsewhere. In other words, India could assume security operations of low intensity while the USA reserve for itself actions on a larger scale. Thus, India would have the feeling, quite justifiably, of not being part of a military alliance and of preserving its autonomy of decision, while providing a valuable contribution to America.
For reasons both political and economic, the USA has formed a strategic partnership with India which it is no longer viewing with condescension. India is becoming a major economic player. The global oil market should take into account its growing needs to fuel a booming industry. The USA has proposed in the agreement of 18 July 2005 assistance in the civil nuclear domain subject to a clear separation between civilian and military programs and a commitment to non-proliferation. India has so far been a model of the non-proliferating State, as opposed to her neighbor, Pakistan. Despite the constraints imposed, the Indians will be winners because they have access to cutting-edge nuclear technology . Ultimately, the same benefits are being offered to India as to the States that are signatories to the Treaty on Non-Proliferation. The Americans are considering, under the defense agreement valid for 10 years signed on June 27, 2005, the sale of sophisticated weaponry, including F16 and F18 aircraft which will have European, notably French, competitors. They also propose a collaboration in the field of missile defense. Moreover, an agreement on space cooperation was signed.
The Indians are not fooled by this dramatic reversal, the abandonment of all sanctions imposed after the nuclear tests in May 1998. As fine diplomats, skilled and intransigent negotiators, they will squeeze all the possible benefits, without abandoning their convictions and making minimal concessions, particularly in safeguarding their energy supplies and their military nuclear program and pursuing a policy of rapprochement with China and Russia, including with the latter country in the nuclear and space dolmans (satellite navigation system GLONASS -capable of civilian and military use). They will not accept a tightening of conditions that U.S. legislators might demand. Some opponents of the current government, however, believe that it will be impossible to make a separation between civilian and military programs and that the Americans will in fact have a right to inspect nuclear weapons. They consider that in the long term, with the amendments imposed by Washington to the original text, New Delhi will lose its independence of judgment and the possibility of modernizing its arsenal. By voting against Iran at a consultation within the International Atomic Energy Agency, India has yielded to U.S. pressure, wanting at any price receive aid to modernize her nuclear generators and more generally her civilian nuclear program. In doing so, it has complicated but probably not compromised the realization of the gas pipeline from Iran passing through Pakistan, that she also greatly needs. By its vote, India also wants to show that after joining the club of declared nuclear nations, she intends to close the door after her, however, obliged to admit that Pakistan has crashed through at the very last moment.
India has need of American and European technologies, judged superior to those of Russia, primarily in the nuclear and space domains, considered of strategic importance. The international community recognizes the value of Indian participation in the (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor – ITER) project. Similarly, Indian collaboration in the realization of the European satellite navigation system Galileo is a given. India is also seeking the cooperation of Western countries to modernize her airport, port, and railway infrastructures.
For their part, industrialized countries and multinational corporations are becoming aware of the importance of the Indian market in the civil and military domains that they can no longer ignore. The USA believes that the benefits accorded in the nuclear domain will promote increased political contacts, thus consolidating the strategic partnership and they will also be beneficial to their firms in all sectors of economic activity and even for the sale of weapons systems. The expression of demands for a wide variety of equipment arouses the greatest attention in Europe as in America, and the Indians will play upon the growing rivalry between the two continents. On the booming aviation market, the duel that Boeing and Airbus are engaged in to supply the Indian national and private airlines is an illustration of this. Boeing has garnered an order for 68 commercial aircraft. Airbus plans to invest over a billion dollars in India over the next ten years (2007-2016) in establishing a training center for pilots of the A 320 aircraft from all over Asia, a research centre, and a centre for maintenance and repairs. A relocation to India rather than China of certain industrial activities, in addition to those which already exist in the area of services, may seem preferable to the White House as also to the European capitals. It is, perhaps, for Western governments a lesser evil. General Motors and Motorola are planning to build plants in the western and southern parts of India. Posco, a manufacturer of South Korean steel and Mittal Steel, the conglomerate based in the Netherlands, have plans to erect giant plants on the east coast. Wal-Mart, the American large retail company concluded in November 2006 an agreement with the Indian company Bharti Enterprises to set up shop. Germany invests heavily in many areas, including in the automotive sector. The French companies Lafarge, Saint-Gobain, Alstom and others are present in India since a long time. Since 2006, Renault is cooperating with an Indian firm.
However, foreign direct investment in India remains more than ten times lower than those going to China, which nevertheless has a far less efficient banking system. The imposition of maximum percentages for non-national investors, rising but judged still too low, discourages the arrival of funds. Foreign companies can not own more than 74% of assets in the telecommunications sector, 51% in food distribution and consumption, and 49% in the aviation sector. They regret that the Government is unable to authorize the full opening of foreign capital to 100% for the construction of airports and in the energy domain, because of its lack of firmness towards its communist allies within the ruling coalition in New Delhi.
Research centers of major western companies are moving to India, where there is a supply of grey matter. The outsourcing bears no longer only on low-level jobs. Highly skilled jobs are henceforth also affected.
Some Indian businessmen from the private sector invest in the USA, Australia, and Europe, not only in information technology where they excellent, but also in a wide variety of sectors. In the field of energy, India participates in the exploration of oil and gas in the Russian Sakhalin Island and is preparing to cooperate with Turkey for exploration in third countries, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa.
In addition, Indian industrialists are buying Western firms and want to expand across the world, especially in Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America. The acquisition in July 2006 of Arcelor by Mittal Steel, headed by an Indian, was seen as a resounding victory, even if Mittal is not installed in India but in the Netherlands. In October 2006, Tata Steel Limited, one of many companies in the Tata conglomerate, declared its desire to acquire the Anglo-Dutch company Corus, based in London, after having acquired the Singaporean Natsteel Asia and 40% of Thai Millennium Steel. The acquisition was made in January 2007. Tata thus becomes the fifth largest company in the global steel sector. In 2004, Tata Motors took over the Korean firm Daewoo Truck. With the acquisition in 2005 of the largest Chilean IT services company, Tata Consultancy Services has consolidated its positions in Latin America where it is present in fourteen countries.
The Tata group is also interested in hotels. Through the Indian Hotels Company Ltd (IHCL), it owns the Pierre Hotel in New York and will acquire the Ritz-Carlton in Boston, New England, starting in mid-January 2007. The chain has 75 hotels worldwide. Four luxurious projects will see the day, three in 2008 in Doha (Qatar), Dubai (United Arab Emirates), and Cape Town (South Africa) and one in 2009 in Phuket (Thailand).
In March 2006, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, one of the jewels of the Indian pharmaceutical industry for generic drugs, has acquired the largest German producer of generics, Betapharma. Suzlon, the Indian manufacturer of wind turbines, purchased in May 2006, the Belgian company Hansen. In a more unexpected area, United Breweries of Bangalore, famous for its Kingfisher beer, acquired a wine producer from the Loire, Bouvet-Ladubay, after having failed in his attempt to buy Champagne Taittinger. Tata Tea has appropriated the English Tetley and acquired a third of the South African company Joekels and the U.S. company Energy Brands.
Sometimes, Indian companies align themselves with American institutions to acquire foreign firms. Thus, in September 2006, Videocon has joined the American fund Ripplewood to take possession of the South Korean company Daewoo Electronics.
Through its many initiatives resulting from a conquering dynamics, India has become a major player in global capitalism. The sway of its private companies is generally better accepted than that of China where companies often belong to the state or are under its control.
The Indian diaspora, much smaller than the Chinese but still evaluated at more than 25 million people, gives New Delhi an opening to the world, especially to the Middle East, Europe, and the USA but also around the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean. It helps develop trade relations and makes significant money transfers to the country of origin. In this way the 6 million Indians Persian Gulf have repatriated 20 billion dollars to India in 2006. A ministry was specially created for Indians living abroad whose importance is now recognized by New Delhi.
Senior Indian managers work in many American and European companies. Some even take over the reins, as was the case in 2006 for PepsiCo in the USA. It is an American of Indian origin who is the co-founder of Hotmail (to be translated as web-based email system), an Indian by birth, emigrated to the USA, is vice president and director of global research of the U.S. group Motorola, thus leading 26,000 engineers and researchers throughout the world. The director of research at Yahoo is also of Indian origin. Many heads of high technology companies in Silicon valley are Indians. The Indians are present within the European Space Agency. In Europe, the United Kingdom, the former colonial power, but also Germany and less so France have large Indian communities, often of great value. In the UK, it is an engineer originally from Madhya Pradesh, a province in central India, who heads the company Vodafone.
Expatriates play an important role in defending India interests. Some repatriate funds and invest in their country of origin. The Indians living in the USA constitute powerful pressure groups that promote trade. They provide an excellent image of their country of origin. Engineers and western students are now interested in coming to work or study in India. Conversely, Indian students are in great demand at some Western universities, in all disciplines including science and medicine, especially in the USA (where there are 80,000 of them, more than the Chinese). Taking advantage of scholarships from the European Union, Indian students are likewise numerous in Europe, including the United Kingdom (10,000), Germany (5,000) and France (1,500). More than 10% of the students at the European Institute of Business Administration (INSEAD), in Fontainebleau are Indians. Some are settled in host countries, sometimes to promote trade. Goa is a window to the Portuguese-speaking world, in Africa (Angola, Mozambique) and especially in the Americas (Brazil). In comparison, Puducherry (new name of Pondicherry) plays an insignificant role with regard to the Francophone world. To complement the education provided in universities and institutes, large industrial firms in India have created their own training centres in which can also be found Indians who pursued their studies abroad, ie mainly the USA , Canada and Australia. The irony of history, some expatriates return to their country of origin through the favor of outsourcing. Thus, engineers of Indian origin working in Silicon Valley are quitting taking their businesses with them.
VI- A significant military force
In addition to its increasing role in international domain, politically and economically, and its assertion as a nuclear power, India is acquiring a full range of defenses, in keeping wih its existing financial resources and technologies. Devoting about 3% of its Gross Domestic Product to her defense, very reasonable percentage, her armed forces are among the most powerful in the world, through their effective numbers, the high level of its officers, the bravery of its senior and junior soldiers, but also by the quantity and quality of its equipment and armaments.
The defense industry is based on a set of public enterprises and arsenals producing materials for the three armies. Some manufacturing programs have resulted in failure or significant delays. The main shipyards are located in Mumbai and Kolkata. 35 warships are currently under construction. Although its defense industry is developing, especially by drawing upon the private sector, India still has to import much of its equipment and armaments. Russia remains a major supplier and grants manufacturing licences fairly readily for certain weapons systems, including aircraft. Joint-production is underway as in the field of high technology such as the supersonic cruise missile Brahmos (appellation that evokes the Brahmaputra and Moskova). But, as in the civilian sphere, Western technology is highly sought after. Israel and Western countries are increasing their share in the market for armaments. Unthinkable a few years ago, the Americans have in 2006 sold the Indians a decommissioned warship and six military helicopters. They are positioning themselves to sell the 126 new fighter jets that the Air Force would like to acquire.
The Army aligns more than 1,200,000 men and materials and arms that are sometimes relatively modern but sometimes also obsolete. The participation, by rotation, of many units in counter-insurgency operations against separatists in Kashmir, fighters for independence or autonomy in the States of the north-east battle-hardens the troops but also wears them out and diverts them from their primary mission. The Army suffers from a lack of officers, the deficit is estimated at 11,000. This under-staffing explains perhaps the stress of some ranking soldiers engaged in Kashmir which sometimes leads, within the barracks, to violent fights and suicides.
The Air Force has at its disposition high-performance fighter jets such as the Mig 29 and Su 30, acquired from Russia and deployed on many bases scattered across the country. The acquisition of Russian aircraft equipped with Israeli AWACS detection systems will be a multiplier of power.
The Navy is being strengthened with the acquisition of an aircraft carrier of Russian origin and six Scorpene submarines of Franco-Spanish design . The construction of a very huge base at Karwar, 100 km south of Goa, in the state of Karnataka will allow her new means of action. In the existing naval bases in Mumbai, Vishakapatnam, and Cochin, the Navy must share facilities with commercial vessels. It will not be the same in Karwar which will form an exclusively military-oriented complex, destined for interservice use, with not only a naval base capable of receiving under optimal conditions of security surface ships and submarines, and also an airbase and various other infrastructure. This will be no doubt be the largest base in South Asia, in no way commensurate with the Ormara naval base and the port of Gwadar, which serve dual military and civilian purposes, on the Makran coast of Pakistan. Karwar should enable the Indian Navy to protect shipping well off its western coast in the Arabian Sea and monitor Chinese vessels, which could multiply their stopovers in Burma, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. The future base interests both the USA and Russia (the aircraft carrier of the Indian Navy, of Russian origin, will be based there) but it is doubtful whether India will accord facilities other than those given during routine calls. A change could occur if there is too great a presence of the Chinese fleet in the Indian Ocean. The infrastructure exists to counter a threat, possibly with the help of allies of convenience. The game would be four-way, China and Pakistan on the one hand, India and USA on the other, Russia adopting a neutral stance or providing assistance to the latter two countries. The Indian Navy will also improve its infrastructure on the east coast with the planned construction of new naval bases near Vishakapatnam and 40 km south of Chennai. They will be added to the joint-services base Port Blair in the Andaman archipelago and Nicobar , which controls access to the Strait of Malacca.
The nuclear component is developing especially in the land and air forces and will extend to the navy. India, like Pakistan, has decided to implement a moratorium on nuclear testing but the long-range ballistic missiles program is continuing. Cruise missiles were also tested. Civilian observation satellites may have military applications. The first satellite observation specifically military was launched in August 2007. So India is now a military space power. A missile defense system is being developed.
The India suffers from inadequate command chain. There is a joint chiefs of staff in embryonic form, but without real power. There is no Chief of Staff of the armed forces, and the three armies of land, air, and sea, seem to have trouble coordinating their schedules and their training. Much rigidity of command, perhaps a legacy of close relations in the defense field with the Soviet Union, have a negative effect on operational effectiveness somewhat stifling the spirit of initiative. The strategic command which implements nuclear weapons does not seem fully operational. It is a worrying situation insofar as the response times in case of an exchange of nuclear missiles between India and Pakistan are extremely short because of short distances.
Despite some progress, the military remains poorly integrated into governmental decision-making structures, with the officials of the powerful Indian Administrative Service wishing to maintain their prerogatives, even if their skills in security and defense are weak [5]. Defense scientists seem more involved in decision-making processes before. The President of the Republic, a former armaments engineer and missile specialist, comes from their ranks.
No more than it does on foreign bases at home, India has only points of support abroad. It is not known for the strategic deployment of its armed forces, contenting itself to send large contingents in operations led peacekeeping throughout the world by the United Nations, including and especially in Africa. It exists in this area some emulation with Pakistan and Bangladesh, other major suppliers of blue helmets. Members of the Organization of Cooperation in Shanghai have clearly heard that the American bases in Central Asia should be closed. In this context, the rehabilitation of the airbase of Farkhor in Tajikistan by staff of the Army and the Air Force does Indian takes over relief by demonstrating the willingness of India to ensure a certain military presence, at least temporary and marginal, Central Asia, which has raised some émois in Islamabad.
India remains unclear on the use of nuclear weapons, admitting it will not first use, which is understandable face in Pakistan but less face to China. It modernizes its concepts of employment of ground forces, air and sea. It sets up battle groups to act quickly in the depth of the battlefield, with air support. Their action aimed at destroying enemy forces well localized and not to occupy territory. India has acquired Moreover, a certain capacity for force projection through its aviation bombers who has long range and refueling aircraft in flight and through its navy with aircraft carriers. The early warning aircraft are also planned. Moreover, the Iranian port of Chabahar could be made available to its warships in case of necessity, according to an agreement that was signed between the two countries but which has not been confirmed. The India will be able to intervene militarily in the Indian Ocean and even on the fringes of the Pacific Ocean, especially in Southeast Asia.
The joint exercises involving units of the three armed occur with a frequency growing in the territory of India and abroad with Americans, Britons, French, Russians, South Africans and Iranians. Others are planned with Singapore, Mongolia and Uzbekistan. The special forces are sometimes stakeholders of these exercises.
On the military side, India thus extending its vision. It could, thus exhausting financial Pakistan in an arms race, like that qu’avaient successfully conduct the USA against the Soviet Union. It would not be unhappy to achieve this result while pursuing its primary purpose to acquire a military capability significant part of which could be projected even beyond South Asia.
India has therefore certain attributes of power, a large population that is young, dynamic and in part well-educated, agricultural and mining wealth, technology that is developed in some sectors, including nuclear and space, a capacity to open up to the world, which leads to trade on the increase and, to ensure its security, ample military forces, equipped with nuclear weapons and significant paramilitary units.
But structural weaknesses remain. Her energy dependence persists. India will have to import increasing quantities oil and gas. Global competition will be intense and the no doubt steadily increasing costs will weigh heavily on its trade balance. Her population growth must be controlled, if not the imbalance between resources and needs will no longer be assured and environmental degradation will continue. The health of the population is jeopardized by increasing pollution. Water will be a major problem that India seeks to resolve at both the qualitative and quantitative levels. Regarding quality, she seeks to reduce the pollution of rivers and aquifers, due to fertilizers used in agriculture and industrial waste, due also to inadequate treatment plants for sewage from large cities. Regarding the quantity, she aims to reduce losses, which are huge, from the distribution networks and ensure a better distribution by connecting the major rivers of the country, but the melting of Himalayan glaciers that feed the major rivers is a major concern. The weakness of road, rail, port, and airport infrastructures continues to be a handicap. India will finally have to find solutions to end the insurgency which weaken and tear it apart, Kashmir where Muslim extremists demanding accession to Pakistan or independence, in the States of the North-East plagued by separatist militants or autonomists, and in the central-east provinces where the Maoist rebellion is spreading. These challenges, which extend across the whole territory, are considerable.
On the ranking of human development indices, prepared by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), India is still ill-placed: at the 127th place out of 174 countries, Pakistan being at the 142nd place. In the ranking of corrupt countries, she occupies the 88th place out of 159, Pakistan is even more ill-placed [6]. In addition, corruption is rife. On the index prepared by Transparency International, India ranks at the 88th place out of 163. She does less well in South Asia than Sri Lanka, ranked 78th but better than Nepal, located at the 117th place, Pakistan, 144th place and Bangladesh, 158th place. These unenviable rankings harm domestic investments and more so investments from the outside. India is making efforts to remedy these deficiencies. Thus, having signed and ratified the UN Convention against Corruption of 2005, she did pass a law on freedom of information, a critical tool in the fight against this scourge which is already proving itself effective. At the end of 2006, no similar law had been passed in the other countries of South Asia.
There is a long way yet to go, therefore, for India to join the big league, but she nurtures the ambition and develops the means. She should become the third largest global economic power in 2020, far behind the USA and China but the per capita income will remain low. She wants the world to recognize her importance. An admission as a permanent member the Security Council of the United Nations remains a major goal of its diplomacy. Whatever happens, India will count more and more in the world, especially if it finds common ground with China.
[1] Lecture given during the round table organized by the IPSE (Institute for Future Perspectives and European Security) on June 28, 2007. General Alain Lamballe, currently an international consultant and member of the research group, [ Asie-21] Futuribles, has pursued several missions as defense attaché in India and the neighboring countries.
[2] See the monograph in English, “Terrorism in South Asia,” Alain Lamballe, published by the French Centre for Research on Intelligence, research report No. 3 (RR 3), available on its website www.cf2r . org, November 2005.
[3] See “Water conflicts in South Asia,” Alain Lamballe in “World Wars and conflicts,” Paris, September 1999.
[4] The French Ministry of Foreign Affairs retains the name Burma, rejecting the term Myanmar, formally adopted by the military regime.
[5] See “Army and politics in India,” Alain Lamballe in “National Defense,” Paris, May 2000.
[6] Figures given in the article How India has forged ahead, Kunwar Idris, Dawn, Karachi, 18 September 2005 and in the editorial of the Hindu, Chennai, October 24, 2005.
– Source : www.svabhinava.org
